Mortgage rates today, Jun. 15, and rate forecast for next week

Today’s mortgage rates

Average mortgage rates edged a little higher yesterday. But that wasn’t enough to spoil an excellent week. And those rates are significantly lower than they were seven days ago.

Markets seem much more upbeat than a week ago. and I’m hoping that will continue. So, I’m predicting that mortgage rates next week might fall modestly or hold steady. But these predictions are based on nothing more than a gut feeling. And you shouldn’t rely on them.

Current mortgage and refinance rates

Should you lock a mortgage rate today?

What a difference a week makes! This week’s inflation reports came as a pleasant shock and have transformed the mood in markets.

Even so, I’m far from convinced that we’re set for a sustained period of reliable falls in mortgage rates. One of those might turn up late this year. But I suspect we’ll see plenty of rises and falls between now and then.

So, my overall, personal rate lock recommendations remain:

• LOCK if closing in 7 days
• LOCK if closing in 15 days
• LOCK if closing in 30 days
• LOCK if closing in 45 days
• LOCK if closing in 60 days

However, with so much uncertainty at the moment, your instincts could easily turn out to be as good as mine — or better. So let your gut and your own tolerance for risk help guide you.

What’s moving current mortgage rates

Smiles all-round

Last week, I was talking about “a souring in investors’ mood.” This week, the opposite applies.

We received excellent news on Wednesday in the form of lower-than-expected inflation in the consumer price index. And mortgage rates plummeted in response.

True, that afternoon’s projections from the Federal Reserve were less rate-friendly. But markets seem to be already second-guessing the Fed’s stance, which suggests only a single cut to general interest rates later this year.

At one point, a few months ago, the Fed was hoping to implement three such cuts and markets thought six more likely. So, Wall Street doesn’t have a great record for second-guessing the Fed. But, as long as the optimism continues, we might see mortgage rates remain low (though only by recent standards)

Coming up

The economic reports and events that are most likely to move mortgage rates significantly are behind us now. Well, until Jun. 28, at least. That’s when the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index is due, which is the Fed’s favored gauge of inflation.

Of course, some economic reports are scheduled that might move mortgage rates between now and then. But their influence on markets tends to be limited and short-lived.

Other factors may also affect mortgage rates. For example, seven speaking engagements by senior Fed officials are on Monday and Tuesday’s calendar. They might seek to influence markets’ perceptions of Wednesday’s CPI and Fed activities.

And, as always, there’s a permanent danger of some news story coming out of left field that affects the economy and markets and thus moves mortgage rates.

Next week

Three economic reports are most likely to affect mortgage rates next week:

• May retail sales (Tuesday)
• May industrial production and capacity utilization (Tuesday)
• Two June “flash” purchasing managers’ indexes (PMIs) from S&P, one for the services sector and the other for the manufacturing sector. “Flashes” are initial readings, subject to change

Of those, retail sales data are likely to be the most consequential for mortgage rates. But, as I said earlier, even that report typically moves those rates only temporarily and by a modest or moderate amount. It and the others would have to shock markets to have a bigger impact.

I’ll brief you on each of those four reports the day before each is scheduled for publication.

Summary of economic reports and events next week

See above for details about the more important economic reports next week. Any abbreviations below are also explained there.

In the following list of next week’s reports, only those in bold typically have the potential to affect mortgage rates appreciably. The others probably won’t have much impact unless they contain shockingly good or bad data.

• Monday — June Empire State manufacturing survey
• Tuesday — Retail sales, and industrial production and capacity utilization, all for May. Also, May business inventories
• Wednesday — Juneteenth Day holiday (markets closed). But the June home builder confidence index should still appear.
• Thursday — May housing starts and business permits. Also initial jobless claims for the week ending Jun. 15
• Friday — June flash PMIs for the manufacturing and services sectors from S&P. Plus May existing home sales and leading economic indicators..

Tuesday is when mortgage rates are most likely to move. But I’m hoping for a quiet week.

Time to make a move? Let us find the right mortgage for you

Mortgage rates forecast for next week

I’m hoping next week will be relatively unexciting, allowing mortgage rates to hold steady or fall a bit. But these weekly forecasts are notoriously difficult and prone to error.

How your mortgage interest rate is determined

A bond market generally determines mortgage and refinance rates. It’s the one where trading in mortgage-backed securities takes place.

And that’s highly dependent on the economy. So mortgage rates tend to be high when things are going well and low when the economy’s in trouble. But inflation rates can undermine those tendencies.

Your part

But you play a big part in determining your own mortgage rate in five ways. And you can affect it significantly by:

1. Shopping around for your best mortgage rate — They vary widely from lender to lender
2. Boosting your credit score — Even a small bump can make a big difference to your rate and payments
3. Saving the biggest down payment you can — Lenders like you to have real skin in this game
4. Keeping your other borrowing modest — The lower your other monthly commitments, the bigger the mortgage you can afford
5. Choosing your mortgage carefully — Are you better off with a conventional, conforming, FHA, VA, USDA, jumbo or another loan?

Time spent getting these ducks in a row can see you winning lower rates.

Remember, they’re not just a mortgage rate

Be sure to count all your forthcoming homeownership costs when you’re working out how big a mortgage you can afford. So, focus on something called you “PITI.” That stands for:

• Principal — Pays down the amount you borrowed
• Interest — The price of borrowing
• Taxes — Specifically property taxes
• Insurance — Specifically homeowners insurance

Our mortgage calculator can help with these.

Depending on your type of mortgage and the size of your down payment, you may have to pay mortgage insurance, too. And that can easily run into three figures every month.

But there are other potential costs. So, you’ll have to pay homeowners association dues if you choose to live somewhere with an HOA. And, wherever you live, you should expect repairs and maintenance costs. There’s no landlord to call when things go wrong!

Finally, you’ll find it hard to forget closing costs. You can see those reflected in the annual percentage rate (APR) that lenders will quote you. Because that effectively spreads them out over your loan’s term, making that rate higher than your straight mortgage rate.

But you may be able to get help with those closing costs and your down payment, especially if you’re a first-time buyer. Read:

Down payment assistance programs in every state for 2023

Mortgage rate methodology

The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.