Mortgage rates today, Jun. 1, and rate forecast for next week

Today’s mortgage rates

Average mortgage rates fell appreciably yesterday. It’s been a short but eventful week with plenty of ups and downs. But, come Friday evening, those rates were almost unchanged from where they stood seven days earlier.

Mortgage rates next week are again unpredictable. Just as last week they hinged on yesterday’s inflation report, their direction will depend largely on next Friday’s official jobs report.

Current mortgage and refinance rates

Should you lock a mortgage rate today?

Mortgage rates ended May moderately lower than they started it. But the month was split neatly in two, with the first half bringing worthwhile falls and the second more unwelcome rises.

We should expect good and bad days and weeks. And it’s usually a good idea to float on days when those rates look likely to fall.

But I doubt we’ll see rates falling consistently until the late summer or fall. So, my overall, personal rate lock recommendations remain:

• LOCK if closing in 7 days
• LOCK if closing in 15 days
• LOCK if closing in 30 days
• LOCK if closing in 45 days
• LOCK if closing in 60 days

However, with so much uncertainty at the moment, your instincts could easily turn out to be as good as mine — or better. So let your gut and your own tolerance for risk help guide you.

What’s moving current mortgage rates

Yesterday, I quoted a Wall Street Journal e-newsletter from that morning: “Anxiety over inflationary pressures and the future interest-rate path continue to set the tone for markets.”

Mortgage rates tend to rise when the economy’s doing well and fall when it’s struggling. So, to relieve that anxiety and drive rates lower, we need to see signs of:

1. The economy weakening
2. Inflation slowing
3. The Federal Reserve talking up the chances of cuts to general interest rates later this year

In less than two weeks, on Jun. 12, we’ll have seen the most powerful indicators of whether or not those three are happening.

First comes the jobs report next Friday, Jun. 7. That’s Wall Street’s premier gauge of how the economy’s performing.

Then, on the morning of Jun. 12, the consumer price index (CPI) is released. Again, most regard that as the most significant measure of inflation, though the Fed prefers yesterday’s personal consumption expenditures price index.

Finally, on the afternoon of the same day, the Fed’s rate-setting committee will update us through reports, data and a news conference on how its thinking on future cuts to general interest rates is evolving.

From now until Jun. 13, we can expect considerable volatility in mortgage rates. We can hope that markets are cheered by all three of those events and that mortgage rates fall throughout. However, it’s probably more realistic to expect some disappointments, which could push those rates higher. Indeed, there’s a chance that all three will disappoint, which could bring significant rises.

There’s no way to predict what each event will bring. So, please keep your arms inside the roller coaster.

Next week’s economic reports

The jobs report (the “employment situation report”) undoubtedly has the potential to move mortgage rates further than any of the other reports on next week’s calendar.

But there are plenty of others that sometimes move them a bit and occasionally appreciably. So, don’t expect a smooth ride between now and Friday.

In the summary, below, the ones that are most likely to have an impact on mortgage rates are shown in bold. I’ll brief you on each the day before it’s published.

Summary of economic reports and events next week

See above for details about the more important economic reports next week.

In the following list of next week’s reports, only those in bold typically have the potential to affect mortgage rates appreciably. The others probably won’t have much impact unless they contain shockingly good or bad data.

• Monday — May purchasing managers' indexes (PMIs) for the manufacturing sector from S&P and the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). Also, April construction spending
• Tuesday — April job openings and labor turnover survey (JOLTS). Plus April factory orders
• Wednesday — May ADP private-sector employment report. Also, May PMIs for the services sector from S&P and the ISM. Plus the final reading of productivity for the first quarter
• Thursday — Initial jobless claims for the week ending Jun. 1.
• Friday — May jobs report. Also, May consumer credit and April wholesale inventories

Friday’s the big day owing to its jobs report.

Time to make a move? Let us find the right mortgage for you

Mortgage rates forecast for next week

Once again, a pivotal economic report means I can’t predict the direction mortgage rates will take next week. Sorry! But if I could accurately forecast key economic reports before their publication, I’d be sunning myself on a beach somewhere exotic, not writing this.

How your mortgage interest rate is determined

A bond market generally determines mortgage and refinance rates. It’s the one where trading in mortgage-backed securities takes place.

And that’s highly dependent on the economy. So mortgage rates tend to be high when things are going well and low when the economy’s in trouble. But inflation rates can undermine those tendencies.

Your part

But you play a big part in determining your own mortgage rate in five ways. And you can affect it significantly by:

1. Shopping around for your best mortgage rate — They vary widely from lender to lender
2. Boosting your credit score — Even a small bump can make a big difference to your rate and payments
3. Saving the biggest down payment you can — Lenders like you to have real skin in this game
4. Keeping your other borrowing modest — The lower your other monthly commitments, the bigger the mortgage you can afford
5. Choosing your mortgage carefully — Are you better off with a conventional, conforming, FHA, VA, USDA, jumbo or another loan?

Time spent getting these ducks in a row can see you winning lower rates.

Remember, they’re not just a mortgage rate

Be sure to count all your forthcoming homeownership costs when you’re working out how big a mortgage you can afford. So, focus on something called you “PITI.” That stands for:

• Principal — Pays down the amount you borrowed
• Interest — The price of borrowing
• Taxes — Specifically property taxes
• Insurance — Specifically homeowners insurance

Our mortgage calculator can help with these.

Depending on your type of mortgage and the size of your down payment, you may have to pay mortgage insurance, too. And that can easily run into three figures every month.

But there are other potential costs. So, you’ll have to pay homeowners association dues if you choose to live somewhere with an HOA. And, wherever you live, you should expect repairs and maintenance costs. There’s no landlord to call when things go wrong!

Finally, you’ll find it hard to forget closing costs. You can see those reflected in the annual percentage rate (APR) that lenders will quote you. Because that effectively spreads them out over your loan’s term, making that rate higher than your straight mortgage rate.

But you may be able to get help with those closing costs and your down payment, especially if you’re a first-time buyer. Read:

Down payment assistance programs in every state for 2023

Mortgage rate methodology

The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.