Tomorrow’s U.S. employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics is a major economic indicator that weighs heavily on investors and policymakers.
The data gives a monthly snapshot of the labor market and its tether to economic trends. The Federal Reserve could be influenced to speed up or delay its cuts depending on the strength of the jobs numbers.
Find your lowest rate. Start hereExpected jobs data for March
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release its March employment report tomorrow, April 4. Over the last 12 months, about 1.947 million net jobs were created, good for a monthly average of 162,250 jobs, according to BLS data.
The median forecast anticipates March employment to decrease to 140,000 from 151,000 in February, and expects the unemployment rate to hold at 4.1%. Additionally, average hourly earnings are expected to rise by 0.3% month-over-month, maintaining February’s pace.
Potential mortgage rate impacts
Mortgage rates and their movements closely tie to economic indicators, with employment data being one of the most impactful. A robust jobs report can influence the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions. And while the Fed doesn’t explicitly determine mortgage rates, its actions do affect them.
For instance, stronger-than-expected job growth may lead the Fed to hold — or even raise — its fed funds range to prevent the economy from overheating, which would likely result in growing interest rates.
Conversely, if the report reveals weaker job creation or a rising unemployment rate, the central bank might consider easing monetary policy to stimulate economic activity. Such a move could lead to lower mortgage rates, making borrowing more affordable for consumers.
Time to make a move? Let us find the right mortgage for youMarket reactions and investors
The employment report’s findings will also have ripple effects across the financial markets. The latest report should also provide a first look at how companies are handling the Trump administration’s firehose of tariff decisions and executive orders.
“Uncertainty and angst around tariffs continue to weigh on business and consumer sentiment,” said Kara Ng, senior economist at Zillow Home Loans. “The Bureau of Labor Statistics employment report, released on April 4, may give an early glimpse of how government layoffs and funding cuts are translating into the broader labor market, though the impact may play out over many months.”
A positive report may bolster investor confidence, which could lead to gains in the stock market and potential increases in bond yields — both influential factors for mortgage rates.
A below-expectations jobs report could heighten recession fears, prompting investors to seek safer assets like Treasury bonds, which would lower yields and potentially help reduce mortgage rates.
The bottom line for home buyers
It’s important to note that although the employment report carries significance, mortgage rates are influenced by a multitude of economic and geopolitical factors.
Tomorrow’s jobs report will provide valuable insights, but it is just a single component out of a litany that will shape the trajectory of mortgage rates in the coming months.
If you’re looking to become a homeowner, get prepared and reach out to a local mortgage professional when you’re ready.
