Mortgage and refinance rates today, Apr. 15, and rate forecast for next week

Today’s mortgage and refinance rates

Average mortgage rates rose yesterday. And they climbed appreciably over the entire week. So, this isn’t a happy weekend.

Markets were responding to news and data unpredictably this week. And they may well do so over the coming seven days. So, with apologies, I shall not be making a forecast for next week.

Current mortgage and refinance rates

Should you lock a mortgage rate today?

Maybe. Yes, there’s every reason to hope that mortgage rates will fall again soon. The chances of a recession within months are growing stronger.

But what’s less predictable is when that recession will begin — and when markets will start moving in anticipation of it. I’m hoping it will be soon because that will very likely move mortgage rates lower. But there can be no guarantees.

Still, for now, my personal rate lock recommendations remain:

• LOCK if closing in 7 days
• LOCK if closing in 15 days
• FLOAT if closing in 30 days
• FLOAT if closing in 45 days
• FLOAT if closing in 60 days

However, with so much uncertainty at the moment, your instincts could easily turn out to be as good as mine — or better. So let your gut and your own tolerance for risk help guide you.

What’s moving current mortgage rates

Yesterday

Yesterday’s retail sales figures showed the American economy cooling — and quickly. The Wall Street Journal (paywall) reported the data thus: “American consumers cut their retail spending for the second straight month in March, adding to signs of a slowing economy … The decline in retail sales could suggest that higher interest rates are working to slow down the economy as Federal Reserve officials have intended.”

Normally, that would have sent mortgage rates tumbling. So, why didn’t it?

I’m not sure. One suggestion is that non-store sales (mostly e-commerce) remained strong. But I’m not convinced that’s enough.

Uncertainty over the Fed

Another explanation was suggested by the CNN Business Before the Bell e-newsletter on Apr. 9. Its headline was, “Wall Street says bad news is no longer good news.” That needs a bit of unpacking.

For roughly a year now, markets have treated cooling economic data as a good sign. They reckoned it meant the Federal Reserve would ease off its interest rate hikes sooner rather than later.

But, at its last rate-setting meeting, the Fed was spooked by the banking crises then raging. And it signaled that it would likely pause rate hikes early anyway.

As CNN put it, “With an end to interest rate hikes in sight, investors have stopped attempting to guess the Fed’s next move and have turned instead to the health of the economy.”

Well, maybe. But the Fed now appears to see those banking crises as a much less immediate threat than it did a few weeks ago.

And you may wonder whether markets are reading the Fed wrong. We’ll find out on May 3, when most expect another 25-basis-point (0.25%) rate hike.

Meanwhile, we might get more hints on future rates policy when top Fed officials speak in public. There are seven such speaking engagements scheduled for next week.

Economic reports next week

Next week is a relatively quiet one for economic reports. And that might be a good thing, given markets’ unpredictability and perversity.

Many of the reports relate to the housing sector, which, ironically, rarely affects mortgage rates.

Reports that are potentially important for mortgage rates are shown in bold in the following list. The others rarely move those rates far unless they contain shockingly good or bad data.

• Monday —April home builder confidence index
• Tuesday — March housing starts and building permits
• Wednesday — Fed beige book (survey of economic conditions)
• Thursday — March existing home sales. Plus initial jobless claims for the week ending April 15
• Friday — April purchasing managers' indexes (PMIs) for the services and manufacturing sectors from S&P

It’s a relatively quiet week for new reports. But that doesn’t necessarily mean it will be a quiet one for mortgage rates.

Time to make a move? Let us find the right mortgage for you

Mortgage interest rates forecast for next week

Markets are acting too unpredictably and sometimes perversely for me to hazard a guess about where mortgage rates will move next week. Sorry!

But, further ahead, I’m still optimistic that mortgage rates could fall back appreciably.

How your mortgage interest rate is determined

Mortgage and refinance rates are generally determined by prices in a secondary market (similar to the stock or bond markets) where mortgage-backed securities are traded.

And that’s highly dependent on the economy. So mortgage rates tend to be high when things are going well and low when the economy’s in trouble. But inflation rates can undermine those tendencies.

Your part

But you play a big part in determining your own mortgage rate in five ways. And you can affect it significantly by:

1. Shopping around for your best mortgage rate — They vary widely from lender to lender
2. Boosting your credit score — Even a small bump can make a big difference to your rate and payments
3. Saving the biggest down payment you can — Lenders like you to have real skin in this game
4. Keeping your other borrowing modest — The lower your other monthly commitments, the bigger the mortgage you can afford
5. Choosing your mortgage carefully — Are you better off with a conventional, conforming, FHA, VA, USDA, jumbo or another loan?

Time spent getting these ducks in a row can see you winning lower rates.

Remember, they’re not just a mortgage rate

Be sure to count all your forthcoming homeownership costs when you’re working out how big a mortgage you can afford. So, focus on your “PITI.” That’s your Principal (pays down the amount you borrowed), Interest (the price of borrowing), (property) Taxes, and (homeowners) Insurance. Our mortgage calculator can help with these.

Depending on your type of mortgage and the size of your down payment, you may have to pay mortgage insurance, too. And that can easily run into three figures every month.

But there are other potential costs. So, you’ll have to pay homeowners association dues if you choose to live somewhere with an HOA. And, wherever you live, you should expect repairs and maintenance costs. There’s no landlord to call when things go wrong!

Finally, you’ll find it hard to forget closing costs. You can see those reflected in the annual percentage rate (APR) that lenders will quote you. Because that effectively spreads them out over your loan’s term, making that rate higher than your straight mortgage rate.

But you may be able to get help with those closing costs and your down payment, especially if you’re a first-time buyer. Read:

Down payment assistance programs in every state for 2023

Mortgage rate methodology

The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.